UPDATED JUNE 16, 2023
20
40
60
80
100
$120 per barrel
Jun. 14, 2023
Jan. 4, 2019
Brent crude oil price
Oil prices have slumped even though OPEC and its allies recently extended production cuts through 2024 that have taken 3.5 million barrels a day off the oil market.
7
8
9
10
11
12 million barrels per day (mmb/d)
July 31, 2023
Jan. 31, 2013
Saudi Arabia crude oil production
Saudi Arabia has also said that in July it will reduce its daily production to nine million barrels, the lowest level since 2013, excluding the pandemic.
9 mmb/d projection
94
96
98
100
102
104
106 million barrels per day (mmb/d)
2028
2021
World oil supply v. demand
Many investors don’t believe the data. RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael Tran argues that the oil market has roughly enough supply to meet demand even if the “official” market says supply is falling short.
Note: Including OPEC+ based on current agreement
The reality is that oil statistics are often disconnected from the physical market. For example, tanker data suggest that Russia’s vow to cut production by 500,000 barrels per day never happened.
The discrepancies might seem like an accounting error, but the result is that few traders feel the confidence to get bullish on the commodity if they can’t trust what’s happening.
Learn more about how unreliable oil data are keeping prices low at the link below: